The actuarial tables, designed to maximize shareholder return, regarding loss of life, during building collapse, are inadequate, have false presumptions and lead to false conclusions. Catastrophe is a possible consequence.
Let me explain, so that everyone can understand.
Actuarial tables are corresponding rows and columns of numbers that are quickly consulted to determine price, for a product. (the product being risk/insurance). These tables are the mathematical result of complex mathematical equations that are created, using symbolic logic, to describe the ‘reality’ relating to the ‘risk’ of selling (product) insurance, to school boards, to protect against ‘human’ costs incurred during a destructive earthquake. These tables were designed to contribute towards maximizing shareholder profit, for the owners of the Insurance Company.
I want to inject an example: Credit swap derivatives were designed mathematical equations to describe the relationship between property (collective housing market sections) and their intrinsic value, for trading purposes. These equations were proved to be false because they failed to calculate the desired outcome. Just as these equations were determined to be false; I believe that the actuarial tables used to maximize shareholder return are false.
There are many ‘mathematical inadequacies’, false or inadequate presumptions, errors and omissions. Mistakes have been made.
1) Wrong mathematical system: The most intrinsic error is the use of an inadequate logical and/or mathematical system to describe the problem. An antiquated, inadequate and inaccurate logical system; being , a 2 valued Newtonian type of logical system; rather than a ‘multi-valued logical system. Just as sub-molecular science and scientific ability to ‘directly observe’ has placed strains (inability to adequately describe or predict) upon the Newtonian Logical System; the complexity of ‘big business interaction is following a similar course. A multi-valued logical system is needed to provide an adequate and accurate mathematical model. The Newtonian system in intrinsically determines’ an absolute conclusion’. Relating to Earthquake ‘Risk’, this is a mistake because the ‘reality’ described by the mathematical system will only produce a ‘probability’; as a conclusion, not an absolute. Newtonian mathematics was practically adequate, hundreds of years ago; however, it has become inadequate to describe the ‘reality’ of a complex, enhanced ‘reality’ world. A ‘multi-Valued’ Logical System expressed in a corresponding mathematical model will produce more adequate and relevant results.
2) Omissions: The entire mathematical model failed to describe the entire relevant ‘reality’ towards achieving a reliable result. It is a necessary condition, towards achieving a valid and reliable mathematical conclusion that all of the necessary elements be included in the equation. An entire ‘subset’ of relevant elements have been omitted from the actuarial algorithms used. The validity of the mathematical conclusions becomes more speculative, in certain instances, when logically necessary elements are missing. The mathematical models which the current actuarial tables are based upon have omitted ‘key’ elements. Collectively called the ‘back-lash’ against unacceptable (by the customer and general population) anti-social behavior. Some of these elements deeply effect the mathematical relationship between the ‘political’, ‘marketing’, advertising, good-will, customer respect and loyalty and actual net profit.
3) False presumptions: All forms of symbolic logic are dependent, for their validity, upon presumptions. This is the key area which has resulted in false conclusions. These false conclusions are due to false presumptions and failures of ‘direct observation’ and information gathering. I would like to,later, address this failure, in more detail. No data from direct observation inside of actual collapsed buildings has ever been used to determine validity. I am the most experienced person, ever to have lived; regarding, the actual scientific analysis of the interior of collapsed buildings. The people who have provided the details, for current actuarial tables, have been understandably, ‘too afraid’, to collect the data.
Consider, my conversation with the VP of Underwriting, at Hartford Insurance Company, in 1989. Based upon the fact that I had searched or crawled into 220 collapsed buildings, I was told that my policy would be $940 per $1,000 of coverage. I said:
” You mean to tell me that you would risk $60; if I paid you $940″.
” Yes. As far as we are concerned, , you have already reached the actuarial certitude of death.”
Obviously, I was not going to pay $940,000.00 for $1 million of life insurance. I continued searching inside of another 676 collapsed buildings.
My knowledge and skills of collapsed structures and the risks associated with them is substantiated by the fact that I am still alive. It, also, illustrates the factual inadequacies of the actuarial tables used.
4) Misuse: Improper dependency upon actuarial tables. Actuarial tables are the result of using symbolic logic to describe the ‘reality’ of the business model. Actuarial tables have no more validity than the value of the inputs, errors, omissions, inadequacies; essentially, descriptive value of the equations and data being used.
The value of the ‘business executive’ , to the shareholder, is his ability to provide insightful ‘human’ judgements with actuarial tables as an important, perhaps necessary; however, not sufficient input into his judgement. Actuarial tables relating to the profitability of assuming earthquake risk; as currently, calculated are giving false and inadequate conclusions. It is dependent upon the ‘business executive’ to make better , more relevant, more accurate and more appropriate decisions.
5) Social Omission: The ‘long term’, ‘lifetime’ costs to General Society of creating orphans (survivors of dead parents), death and despair of victims and survivors should not be omitted from ‘a civilized’ business model.
6) Moral and Ethical: Willingly, knowingly and purposely endangering children’s lives to maximize profit is wrong. The actuarial tables, of present, have calculated that it is costlier to allow children, to survive earthquakes because survivors seek compensation. This increased cost is calculated; using the current actuarial tables; as reducing profit potential, for shareholders. It has been calculated without humanity.
7) Development of Civilization with a ‘baseline’ of acceptable behavior of individuals within the society being framed: I believe that the ‘baseline used in the calculation of the actuarial tables is; either, omitted or inappropriate. I believe that it is barely above ‘cannibalism’ for ‘ profiteers’ to make calculations and place bets (take risk) in which the goal is to have as many children; as possible, immediately die, in their schools.
In any other circumstance and if the general population were to become ‘fully aware’ of this scenario ‘wrongful death’, genocide, and murder charges would be brought.
8) The Auschwitz Defense: Years ago, the VP Of Risk, at Munchener -Re, told us, as he paced ‘back and forth’, in his office:
“I can do nothing. I would lose my job. I am paid to maximize shareholder return, not save lives. The Triangle of Life will save lives but it will decrease shareholder return. They would only replace me with someone else. I would lose my job…for nothing. I am sorry. I can do nothing.”
These same words were used to defend actions and collaboration in Nazi Death camps. Death sentences were given.
9) Time is of the Essence: The time for mitigation is now. De-activate the time bomb before it blows up…not after thousands of innocent children have lost their lives.
10) Risk of Catastrophe: The ‘costs’ of numerous and myriad forms when the public becomes cognizant of the fact that insurance companies have purposely, willingly and knowingly created an environment and/or caused (directly and/or indirectly) their children to be endangered and killed for ‘short term profit could cause legislation to be enacted; a huge scandal and an outrage of public ‘backlash’. The personal consequences, to the shareholders of the Insurance Industry has the potential, to be, a huge magnitude catastrophe.
After, a major earthquake has occurred (in the ‘policy covered’ market) and thousands of children have died, for no reason; other than, maximizing shareholder return and keeping the cost of premiums low; then the ‘costs’ to Insurance Industry Shareholders could include bankruptcy and prison.
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Posted on February 28, 2011
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