Effective Earthquake Prediction

Below is an email that I received / with my response. It will surprise some who are more naive and less aware of seismological politics.



——————————————————————————-
From: csmucsi@gmail.com
To: Pauelcopp@aol.com, csmucsi@gmail.com
Sent: 15/02/2011 10:03:46 P.M. Atlantic Standard Time
Subj: Forecasting earthquakes 1-4 days before onset

Dear Mr. Copp

Browsing the Internet I recently found an scientific article describing the relation between sysmic activities and low frequency electromagnetic waves. It made me very sad and upset with my academic coleagues because it seems scientists are just sat on their chairs typing and publishing scientific papers with no intention or vision for usefull aplications.

The paper can be found at, and a copy is attached to that message:

Earth Planets Space, 53, 55–62, 2001

Italians worked on it, with the title:

“SEISMIC ELECTROMAGNETIC PRECURSOR FESN NETWORK”

The following paper models the issue, in the scientific magazine:

J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 36 (2003) 1620–1628h

Other papers like the one entitled below also deal with the issue:

“ELECTROMAGNETIC EMISSION CAUSED BY FRACTURING OF PIEZOELECTRIC IN ROCK”
Sysmology is not my area of work bus as long as I can see it is not only a research area but a toll to develop a net of stations to forecast, yes, forecast earthquakes with one to four days in advance! Why it is not ventilated to the public and an action is started in order to avoid lots of victims of earthquakes destruction?

I hope the information coud be usefull for you (ARTI) and to save lifes around the world. It seems that politicians are not responsible for keeping this information from the general public and that the scientific community is at least naive.
I also have to apologise for may absence and not attend to your course-trainning, but my professional and familiar activities are takeing a lot of time. By the way I´m studying all I can about climbing-caving rescue techniques and emergency medicine, but getting volunteers is not an easy task, as you know…

I hope and pray for your health, wishing you are going better and better. Let me know if I can help you in any way.

Our best wishes

Cristiano Mucsi
*****************************************
My Response follows

“Dear Cristiano:

You may be familiar with the information contained, in my signature, below…that the Insurance Companies have told the school boards who are their ‘insured’ that they will charge an increased premium or will no longer insure the school boards, if they change the policy from ‘duck and cover’ to the ‘ triangle of life’.They are concerned that shareholder profit will be negatively impacted by school children surviving and seeking compensation.

Regarding the information, that you sent me: I am sad to tell you that our world is so f—ked up that I knew this information 20 years ago. Matt Wyatt, the safety and security officer for Apple Computer was supporting a scientist who was conducting these studies with positive success. He had an 85% success rate. I notice the documents that you sent are dated 11 years ago.

Seismologist Association ‘crushed’ him like a goliath jumping on a grape. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went so far as to kill him. It wouldn’t be the first time such action was taken and it certainly won’t be the last. It is just another example of how vested financial and powerful interests crush everything which they see as a possible threat.

Perhaps, this scientific discovery will eventually overcome all the obstacles and become practically useful for saving lives..in a hundred years but it will be a rare exemption if it is allowed to flourish prior to that.

Seismologist’s have a heavy burden on their souls. They study movements of the earth and layers of soil and yet they claim ( without any study, knowledge and/or experience) to be experts in earthquake survival. I have a very low regard for people who endanger people’s lives for their own personal and selfish gain. It is a shame but it is the reality we live in.

Doug Copp

founder of ARTI ( the world’s most experienced rescue and disaster mitigation/management organization) and the Discoverer of the ‘triangle of life’ to take building collapse survivability from 2% using ‘duck and cover’ to 90% using the ‘triangle of life’
See http://www.amerrescue.org for hundreds of pages of testimonials, videos, docs. Complete information to survive major disaster, learned from doug’s searching 896 collapsed buildings and witnessing 1+ million collapsed buildings, at more than 100 major disaster events; throughout the entire world..
email: amerrescue@aol.com ARTI website: http://www.amerrescue.org
see my eye opening blog at
http://www.dougcopp.wordpress.com/
watch youtube videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/amerrescue (31)
and http://www.youtube.com/user/amerrescuegmail (9)
or http://www.amerrescue.org (40)

1-902-567-1227 home
Home Address: 563 Charlotte St, Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada, B1P-1E6

In a message dated 2/16/2011 8:23:15 A.M. Atlantic Standard Time, Pauelcopp@aol.com writes:

Here is the text of the document which was sent to me.

“Earth Planets Space, 53, 55–62, 2001

An attempt to delineate very low frequency electromagnetic signals associated
with earthquakes

*Toshi Asada1, Hisatoshi Baba1, Mamoru Kawazoe2, and Masahisa Sugiura3

1Research Institute of Science and Technology, Tokai University, 1117 Kitakaname, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa 259-1292, Japan
2School of Engineering II, Tokai University, 2-28 Tomigaya, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 151-0063, Japan
3Research Institute of Science and Technology, Tokai University, 2-28 Tomigaya, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 151-0063, Japan

(Received April 13, 2000; Revised August 29, 2000; Accepted September 29, 2000)

We report on our observation of pulse-like electromagnetic signals in the frequency range 1~10 kHz that we
associate with earthquakes. The severest difficulty in separating earthquake-associated VLF signals from those
originating in lightning discharges stems from the circumstance that the latter signals are overwhelming in number
compared with the former. While claims have often been made of observation of electromagnetic signals in
association with earthquakes, most of the claims, excepting a few, heavily rely on temporal correlation. By means
of simple instrumentation and data processing software, our method by and large enables us to isolate VLF signals
whose direction of arrival is well focussed at the epicenter direction. In this preliminary report we present several
examples that positively demonstrate the existence of a class of VLF signals having a peak frequency of occurrence
1~4 days prior to earthquakes of Magnitude 4~6. With an accumulation of experience the technique described in
this paper would seem to offer a promising approach towards earthquake prediction.

1. Introduction
Observations of electromagnetic signals have often been
linked to earthquakes (e.g., Yoshino et al. (1985), Fujinawa
and Takahashi (1990), and earlier references quoted in the
monographs edited by Hayakawa and Fujinawa (1994) and
Hayakawa (1999)). However, the purported linkages are,
in the majority of cases, through temporal relationships between
the observed electromagnetic signals and the occurrence
of earthquakes. Other studies that incorporate detection
of the direction of signal arrival, while constituting a substantial
improvement, need more cases of observation before
becoming operational (e.g., Yoshino et al., 1985).

There have been two cases of fortuitous detection of decametric
electromagnetic radiation that is considered to be
causally related each to a major earthquake. These observations
were conducted with interferometers intended for radio
astronomical purposes and not for seismological study; relevant
papers, Warwick et al. (1982) and Maeda and Tokimasa
(1996) are discussed in an appropriate context in Section 4.

The study we have conducted is sufficiently different in design
from other similar observations. In this paper we give a
preliminary report on the results of our effort to delineate a
class of electromagnetic emissions of earthquake origin from
those of other sources. Electromagnetic signals investigated
in this study are in the very low frequency (VLF) range, in
the vicinity of 1 to 10 kHz. Most of the electromagnetic
signals of natural origin observed in this frequency range

are atmospherics (or sferics in short), that is, signals mainly
from lightning discharges. Despite this unfavorable circumstance
the art achieved by this study enables us to separate
those minority signals originating in earthquakes from the
overwhelmingly numerous incidences of sferics. A guiding
concept underlying our technique is that signals observed
at a location in association with an earthquake must come
predominantly from a distinct direction, namely, that of the
epicenter, while the signal sources of sferics are dispersed in
azimuth when viewed from a single site.

2. Instrumentation
Our instrumentation for the detection of pulse-like magnetic
field consists of
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two identical ferrite bar-coil aerials and
channel pre-amplifiers. The two aerials are set parallel to two
horizontal reference axes that are orthogonal to each other.
Figure 1 depicts the antenna system installed on the roof of
one of the buildings on the Tokai University Shonan Campus.
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The two aerials are oriented towards the north-south and
east-west directions. The antenna gain is of dumbbell shape
so that the direction of arrival of a signal can be determined
from the two orthogonal components of the incident signal by
elemental geometry, if it is assumed that the incident signal
is plane-polarized in the plane orthogonal to the direction of
propagation. In addition, our recording system is such that
the waveform can readily be examined by plotting the digital
data.

At present, observations are being made continuously at
*In alphabetical order. three sites, Shonan Campus (SHN), Shimizu (SMZ), and
Kumamoto (KMM); locations of these sites are indicated

Copy right c

 The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences
(SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan; with dark dots on the map shown in Fig. 2. In this paper
The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences.
we give results obtained at these stations for the following

55

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 1. Illustrating the antenna system on the roof of one of the buildings on Shonan Campus. Each antenna unit consists of a ferrite-coil antenna and a
pre-amplifier. The two axes are oriented in the north-south and east-west directions.

Fig. 2. Locations of the three stations, Shonan Campus (SHN), Shimizu
(SMZ), and Kumamoto (KMM).

periods. For Shonan Campus: September 1996 to present
and for Shimizu and Kumamoto: March 1997 to present.

Our algorism selects only those signals in which the two orthogonal
components vary proportionately. This amounts to
selecting incident pulses that are plane-polarized in the plane
normal to some direction. This latter direction is designated
as the direction of incidence.
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We do not ask the question of
why the earthquake-related electromagnetic pulses are plane-
polarized. Rather, we adopt this polarization characteristic
as a working hypothesis, and if the directions of incidence of
the signals selected are well focussed in the direction of the
epicenter, then we deduce that our selection rule is viable.

analysis presented in this paper the unit time is taken to be
one day (i.e., 24 hours). This time interval can be of any
length, and may be appropriately sampled if so desired, so
long as the obtained results are statistically meaningful to
achieve the intended objective.

The azimuth of signal calculated as described above has
a 180. ambiguity, that is, the system does not distinguish
the direction of arrival, say, . from . ± 180. . This ambiguity,
however, presents no difficulty in the context of the
discussions given in this paper, where the observed results
on electromagnetic signals are compared with a set of seismic
data already in existence. In any case, when observations are
made at two or more sites, the ambiguity in the direction of
signal arrival can be eliminated by means of triangulation.

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It is remarked here that we make no claim that signals
recorded are the only electromagnetic signals emitted by
earthquakes. Setting criteria for the selection of signals is
a difficult task, but in this study we have adopted a pragmatic
approach with an underlying concept that any set of criteria
that leads us to a useful result is a satisfactory set. Finding
an optimum set of criteria is obviously an important task left
for future study.

3. Observation
The primary purpose of this report is to demonstrate that
our system of observation is capable of distinguishing electromagnetic
signals originating in earthquakes from those
coming from other sources. With this objective in mind we
present four representative cases that typify our observation.

The software counts the cumulative number of events oc-In presenting the occurrence frequency distribution of sigcurring
in a unit time interval, and records for each event nal arrivals two different methods can be used. In one, plane
the azimuth of the direction of signal arrival. Thus the cu-Cartesian coordinates are used, in which the azimuth of the
mulative number is given as a function of azimuth. For the direction of signal arrival is represented by abscissa (along

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 3. The number of occurrences of VLF signals for each hour of October
1 through 31, 1996, integrated over all azimuth.

the horizontal x-axis) covering 180. and the number of occurrences
by ordinate (along the vertical y-axis). In another,
polar coordinates are used, with the radial distance from the
origin giving the number of occurrences, and with the polar
angle indicating the azimuth of the signal arrival direction
(the north and east directions being along the positive y-and
x-axis, respectively, of a Cartesian coordinate system). In
this report the polar coordinate representation is mainly used
to assist the visual perception of the signal arrival direction.

3.1 Case I: October 5, 1996 earthquake
The frequency of occurrence of VLF signals observed at
Shonan Campus during the entire month of October 1996 is
shown in Fig. 3 without regard to the direction of signal arrival.
In the figure the vertical dotted lines correspond to the
beginning of each day, i.e., 0 hour of the day indicated. In
this paper, local time (JST) is used throughout. Upon inspection
of Fig. 3 one immediately observes high VLF activity
on the 3rd and 5th days of October. However, that most of
the signals conspicuous in Fig. 3 for these two days are from
sferics will become clear when we come to Fig. 4. Figure 3
shows the well-known feature in the diurnal variation of the
occurrence frequency of VLF emissions from lightning discharges,
namely a maximum near midnight. Remembering
this feature has been found to be helpful in interpreting observation.

In Fig. 4, we present in the polar coordinate format the
distribution of the frequency of occurrence of signal arrivals
in the 24-hour period of each of the six days of October 1
through 6, 1996 obtained at Shonan Campus. There was an
earthquake of Magnitude (M) = 4.4 in Shizuoka Prefecture
(at latitude 35.05.N and longitude 138.03.E, at the depth of
26 km) on October 5. On each of the six panels in Fig. 4,
we have indicated the epicenter direction by a dotted line
with an arrow at the tip. Special attention is called to the
presence of a group of VLF emissions that is sharply bunched
together around the epicenter direction. Such a group of
emissions is most pronounced on October 3, panel (c), and
is clearly identifiable on October 4, (d), though smaller in
number than on October 3. The presence of the same group
of emissions is seen on Oct. 2, (b), and Oct. 5, (e), still
with notable clarity. We consider these persistent emissions

arriving from the epicenter direction as being VLF emissions
causally related to the earthquake of October 5.

The location of the epicenter of the October 5 earthquake
is indicated by a black square in Fig. 5 (for Oct. 3). The
distribution of signal arrival direction for October 3 is shown
in Fig. 5, which is identical with panel (c) of Fig. 4 excepting
that the polar graph is placed on a map with its origin
coincident with the location of the observation site to see the
situation in proper perspective. This figure shows the existence
of a group of signals coming from the direction of the
epicenter that are clearly separated from signals from other
sources. These other sources presumably include lightning
that took place in the general direction of northwest as reported
by the Lightning Information Company of Franklin
Japan. The locations of these lightning discharges are shown
by dark dots scattered over the Sea of Japan roughly between
the direction of Sado and the Noto Peninsula.

In Fig. 4, we see that after the peak on October 3 the
VLF signals coming from the epicenter direction became
gradually less pronounced toward the day of the earthquake,
i.e., October 5. There is indication of the presence of a
period of gradual build-up preceding the peak activity on
October 3 and of a period of gradual decay after the peak. In
summary, with the earthquake of October 5 there was a peak
VLF activity two days prior to the day of the earthquake.

3.2 Case II: March 26, 1997 earthquake
At 17:31 JST on March 26, 1997 there was an earthquake
of Magnitude 6.3 with the epicenter location at latitude
31.98.N and longitude 130.37.E and at a depth of 8.0 km.
In conjunction with this earthquake the Kumamoto station
observed a large number of occurrences of VLF emission.
Among them there was a group of emissions persistently
coming from the epicenter direction. This VLF activity began
on March 22 and appears to have lasted till March 26.
The earthquake of March 26 differs from other cases dealt
with in this paper in that it was accompanied by several aftershocks.
Specifics (i.e., time of occurrence, magnitude M,
and depth d) of the largest three of the aftershocks are as follows:
17:39 JST, M = 4.7, d = 8.0 km; 18:05 JST, M = 4.5,
d = 10.0 km; 22:44 JST, M = 11.0 km. The locations of
the epicenters of these aftershocks are only slightly shifted
from that of the main shock.

At this stage of our investigation we do not know whether
or not the aftershocks contributed any VLF emissions in addition
to those from the main shock. Hence here we proceed
regarding all the VLF emissions as coming from the epicenter
of the main shock. If the aftershocks contributed any, the
effects may well be taken care of by assuming an expanded
source area. In terms of our present procedure this amounts
to relaxing the directional requirement for a VLF emission to
be considered as originating from the epicenter. In any case,
it appears that ignoring the aftershocks would not present any
fundamental difficulty in this discussion.

There is another caveat with Case II that cannot be ignored.
That is, there was a continuing thunderstorm activity
concurrent with the VLF emissions presumed to come from
the earthquake. We cope with this problem by a contention
that the incidence of the earthquake-related VLF emission is
well focussed in the epicenter direction, while the lightning
sources are more spread out rather than being focussed in a

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 4. The distribution of VLF signal arrival direction in 24 hours on each of six days, October 1 through 6, 1996 at Shonan Campus (Case I, an earthquake
of M = 4.4 on Oct. 5). The radial distance represents the total number of occurrences. The epicenter direction is indicated by a dotted line with an arrow
at the tip.

Fig. 5. Observation of VLF signals at Shonan Campus on October 3, 1996
(Case I, an earthquake of M = 4.4 on Oct. 5). The epicenter is indicated
with the black square. The dots over the Sea of Japan show locations of
lightning discharges (see the text).

single direction, and often shift in azimuth with time.

Panels (a), (b), …, (h) in Fig. 6 show in polar coordinate
representation the distribution of the source directions of
VLF radiation on March 20 through 27, 1997. The direction
towards the epicenter is indicated on each panel by a dotted
line marked with an arrow. We summarize our diagnosis of
these figures: (i) No notable emissions from the epicenter
area on Mar. 20. (ii) Little emission from the epicenter area,
if any, is seen on Mar. 21. (iii) There is a group of emissions,
large in number, bunched together towards the epicenter area
on Mar. 22. (iv) The emission distribution is dominated by
VLF emissions from a large number of sferics on Mar. 23.
Much less frequent earthquake-related emissions exist in the

shadow of sferics. (v) Occurrences of earthquake-related
emission are numerous, and there are a relatively small number
of sferics signals on Mar. 24. (vi) On Mar. 25 there is
a group of emissions that can be considered to be from the
earthquake. (vii) A small bunch of emissions is directed towards
the epicenter on Mar. 26, but this may, or may not,
have come from the earthquake. (viii) On Mar. 27, probably
there were no earthquake-related emissions.

The distribution of the emission direction shown in panel

(e) of Fig. 6, for March 24, is reproduced in geographical
perspective in Fig. 7. Although not shown, there was no
trace of emissions from the epicenter direction on March
28. Thus we conclude that for Case II, earthquake-related
emissions were observed on March 22 through 26 with high
emission rates on March 22 and 24, 4 and 2 days before the
earthquake, respectively.
3.3 Case III: March 9, 1999 earthquake
The third case concerns the M = 4.5 earthquake of March
9, 1999, which occurred at 12:53 JST near the Kumamoto
station at a depth of 10 km. The epicenter of this earthquake
was at 32.95.N, 131.02.E. For this case, sferics activity during
the period of several days in the vicinity of March 9 was
substantially lower than the comparable periods in the three
other cases discussed in this paper. Panels (a), (b), …, (f) in
Fig. 8 show the results for March 5, 6, …, 10, respectively.
The direction towards the epicenter is indicated in each panel
by a dotted line marked with an arrow. The following is a
synopsis of our diagnosis of these diagrams: (i) There is an
indication of earthquake-associated VLF emission on Mar. 5
(a). Though not shown, there are no VLF emissions from the
direction of the epicenter on Mar. 4. (ii) Earthquake-related
emissions fully developed on Mar. 6 (b) and maintained the
level of activity on Mar. 7 (c). The results for Mar. 6 are reproduced
in Fig. 9, showing the locations of the station and

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 6. The distribution of VLF signal arrival direction in 24 hours on each of the eight days, March 20 through 27, 1997, at Kumamoto (Case II, an
earthquake of M = 6.3 on Mar. 26). The epicenter direction is shown by a dotted line with an arrow at the tip.

Fig. 7. Observation of VLF signals at Kumamoto on March 24, 1997 (Case
II, an earthquake of M = 6.3 on Mar. 26). The epicenter is shown with
a black square.

the epicenter on a map. (iii) The number of occurrences of
these emissions diminished towards Mar. 8 (d). (iv) On the
day of the earthquake, Mar. 9, (e), the activity is still visible.

(v) On Mar. 10 (f) there is little that suggests the presence of
VLF activity related to the earthquake of the preceding day.
Thus in the case of March 9, 1999 earthquake, the peak VLF
emission occurred three days before it.
3.4 Case IV: May 22, 1999 earthquake
Results on the earthquake of May 22, 09:48 JST, 1999,
M = 4.1, d = 23 km, epicenter at 35.45.N, 139.E are

presented in Fig. 10. The epicenter was close to Shonan
Campus. Figure 10 shows observations at both the Shonan
Campus and Shimizu stations. At Shonan Campus the VLF
emission activity peaked on May 18, four days prior to the
earthquake. The results shown in Fig. 10 are for May 18.
The figure indicates that VLF emissions from the epicenter
area were detected at both stations. The position of the VLF
signal source area as determined by triangulation using the
observations at the two stations is in gross agreement with
the location of the epicenter. However, in part for the reasons
discussed below, this should be considered to be a tentative
deduction.

The features of VLF activity as observed at the two stations
are shown differently in Fig. 11, in which the occurrence
frequency of VLF signals received is plotted in the Cartesian
coordinate representation with azimuth angles as abscisae.
Results from Shonan Campus are shown on the right and
those from Shimizu on the left side. The direction of the
epicenter of the May 22 earthquake is indicated with an arrow.
The azimuth angle is reckoned clockwise from the north;
however, the ambiguity of ±180. in the azimuth angle should
be kept in mind.

At Shonan Campus an activity peak sharply focussed at
the direction of epicenter is clearly seen. This activity is a
maximum on May 18, for which Fig. 10 is shown. A broader
activity at Shonan Campus near 210.~250. (or 30.~70.)is
considered to represent sferics activity. At Shimizu the VLF
emission activity from the direction of the epicenter area
and sferics activity are superimposed on each other, making
it difficult to differentiate between the emissions from the
two different sources. However, on May 18, the earthquake

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 8. The distribution of VLF signal arrival direction on each of six days, March 5 through 10, 1999 (Case III, an earthquake of M = 4.5 on Mar. 9). The
epicenter direction is shown by a dotted line with an arrow at the tip.

Fig. 9. Observation of VLF signals at Kumamoto on March 6, 1999 (Case

III, an earthquake of M = 4.5 on Mar. 9). The epicenter is indicated with

a black square.

related activity and sferics activity appear to be resolvable.

It is remarked here that at this stage of our investigation
the accuracy with which the signal arrival direction can be
determined is not precisely known. It is uncertain whether
or not the slight difference between the azimuth angle of the
peak VLF activity and the direction of the epicenter seen for
Shimizu in Fig. 10 is real. Also we will have to keep in mind
that the Shimizu station is close to the shore of the Sagami
Bay so that coastal effects on the propagation of electromagnetic
signals may not be negligible. Clarification of these
details will have to await an accumulation of experience.

4. Discussion
We have presented four examples of observation of VLF

Fig. 10. Observation of VLF Signals at Shonan Campus and Shimizu
(Shonan Campus being more to the east of Shimizu) on May 18, 1999
(Case IV, an earthquake of M = 4.1 on May 22). The epicenter is
indicated with the black square.

activity that we consider as being related to earthquakes. The
association of the VLF emissions with the occurrence of an
earthquake is inferred from (a) temporal correlation and (b)
agreement between the direction of VLF signal arrival and
that of the epicenter. With the VLF signals that are subjected
to our investigation, the occurrence frequency of the
earthquake-related signals is found to be a maximum not on
the day of the earthquake but a few days prior to it. With the
four examples shown above, the maximum VLF activity was
found 1 to 4 days before the day of the earthquake. Whether
or not this time difference is related to the magnitude, depth,
or any other parameter of the earthquake cannot be ascertained
from the small sample we have at hand. Nor is it our

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
Fig. 11. The number of occurrence of VLF signals plotted against azimuth angle, for Shimizu (on the left) and Shonan Campus (on the right) both for May
16 through 22, 1999 (Case IV, an earthquake of M = 4.1 on May 22).

T. ASADA et al.: EARTHQUAKE-ASSOCIATED VLF EMISSIONS
intention to discuss such details in this report. However, the
fact that the time of the maximum VLF emission does not
coincide with that of the main shock of the earthquake must
be considered to constitute an important element in the VLF
emission mechanism.

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Warwick et al. (1982) published a valuable paper on an unusual
radio emission at 18 MHz observed on May 16, 1960,
which was initially reported by Warwick (1963) in a context
not related to seismological study. Upon re-examination
of this radio event some twenty years later Warwick et al.
(1982) concluded that there is enough reason for believing
that the radio emission observed by Warwick in 1960 was related
to the great Chilean earthquake of May 22, 196
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0. The
radio event was observed by a network of radio receivers
for cosmic radio noise at 18 MHz that was intended to detect
solar activity through the sudden decrease of 18 MHz
noise that extreme ultraviolet and X ray flare emissions induce
in the earth’s lower ionosphere. To support their contention
Warwick et al. presented the results of a laboratory
experiment that shows that electromagnetic emissions are
produced when microfractures occur in Westerly granite.
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A
similar laboratory study had been made by Nitsan (1977), in
which he fractured quartz-bearing rocks and simultaneously
recorded electromagnetic fields. Warwick et al. (1982) discussed
in detail how their laboratory experiment relates to
the radio emission observed in conjunction with the Chilean
earthquake.

Since the frequencies of electromagnetic field variations
are different between our observation and those made by
Warwick et al., their analyses are not directly applicable to the
phenomenon we are dealing with in this report. Nevertheless
there is a considerable parallelism between the two different
observations. There have been laboratory experiments in
which electromagnetic signals from fractured rocks are in
frequency ranges closer to the VLF range than the emissions
dealt with in the laboratory experiments of Nitsan (1977)
and Warwick et al. (1982). However, there is no physical
ground to believe that such experiments are more relevant
to our observation than the experiment quoted here. In any
case, discussion of the emission mechanism for the VLF
signals we observe in conjunction with earthquakes is outside
the scope of this preliminary report, and will be deferred to
future publication.
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Here we only hypothesize that the VLF
emissions we have observed in relation to earthquakes are
radiated by changes in polarization in the crystal structures of
rocks caused by stress-induced fractures or similar processes
that lead to the occurrence of earthquakes.

Lastly we add a remark on the range of the distance between
the epicenter and the observation site for which our
method is valid. This range cannot be precisely determined
from the results thus far obtained. Obviously, at locations
nearly directly above the source point of a VLF signal the
horizontal direction of arrival of the signal cannot be unambiguously
determined. Also, there must be an upper limit in

the distance between the epicenter and the observing site beyond
which the present technique becomes ineffective. Such
an upper limit may vary from one region to another, and there
may even be anisotropy in propagation in some areas. At this
stage we have no other choice than taking up only those cases
for which our technique is viable.

5. Conclusions
A technique has been developed to delineate VLF signals
associated with earthquakes. The basic elements of our
method include (i) selection of pulse-like VLF signals, (ii)
temporal correlation with earthquakes, and (iii) selection of
signals based on coincidence of the direction of signal arrival
with that of the epicenter. (Details of selection (i) are given
in Section 2.)

We have presented four examples of observation that, in
our opinion, demonstrate a feasibility of delineating VLF
emissions coming from the epicenter area 1~4 days preceding
the earthquake which the VLF events are associated with.

With more experience and further refinements in the technique
we hope to be able to open an approach towards earthquake
prediction.

Acknowledgments. We acknowledge that the writing of this paper
at this stage of our investigation was largely due to the urging of

M. Otake and K. Tsumura. We wish to thank them for their encouragement.
Thanks are also due to T. Nagao for his assistance
in conducting this research. We are pleased to acknowledge valuable
discussions with S. Ono concerning the polarization in crystals.
We acknowledge that comments by Y. Tanaka and another referee
were helpful in improving the manner of presentation of the results.
This paper is in part a dissertation of M. Kawazoe for the degree of
Doctor of Science at the Tokai University.
References

Fujinawa, Y. and K. Takahashi, Emission of electromagnetic radiation preceding
the Ito seismic swarm of 1989, Nature, 347(6291), 376–378, 1990.

Hayakawa, M. (ed.), Atmospheric and Ionospheric Electromagnetic Phenomena
Associated with Earthquakes, 996 pp., Terra Scientific Publishing
Company, Tokyo, 1999.

Hayakawa, M. and Y. Fujinawa (eds.), Electromagnetic Phenomena Related
to Earthquake Prediction, Terra Scientific Publishing Company, Tokyo,
1994.

Maeda, K. and N. Tokimasa, Decametric radiation at the time of the Hyogoken
Nanbu Earthquake near Kobe in 1995, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 2433–
2436, 1996.

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Nitsan, U., Electromagnetic emission accompanying fracture of quartz-
bearing rocks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 4, 333–336, 1977.

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Warwick, J. W., Radio astronomical techniques for the study of planetary
atmospheres, in Radio Astronomical and Satellite Studies of the Atmosphere,
edited by J. Aarons, 400 pp., North Holland, Amsterdam, 1963.

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Warwick, J. W., C. Stoker, and T. R. Meyer, Radio emission associated with
rock fracture: Possible application to the great Chilean earthquake of
May 22, 1960, J. Geophys. Res., 87(B4), 2851–2859, 1982.

Yoshino, T., I. Tomizawa, and T. Shibata, The possibility of using a direction
finding technique to locate earthquake epicenters from electromagnetic
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T. Asada, H. Baba (e-mail: hbaba@keyaki.cc.u-tokai.ac.jp), M.
Kawazoe, and M. Sugiura (e-mail: sugiura@jspan.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp)”

About amerrescue

Prior to 911, I was the most experienced rescue person, in the world. Permanently disabled from 911, I have changed my life-focus towards preventing bureaucracy and vested financial interests from causing the deaths of 200,000 children per year. I am promoting the belief that the lives of children are more important than American Insurance Company Shareholder profits. International Disaster Reduction Institute Institute of International Disaster January 2010 – Present (3 years 10 months)worldwide The world's most experienced Rescuer/Disaster Mitigation Management Expert , crawling inside of 896 collapsed buildings at 100+ disaster events during war, peace and revolution Plus a lifetime of High Adventure; including, an undercover cop. .At almost 3,000 serious life threatening events and the medical survival from enough toxins to kill 200+ people, I am probably the world's leading survivor, from death. Survival Scientist Linkedin Profile: Summary saving lives, reducing suffering. "You must not only be good. You must be wise and wise enough to know who is good." doug copp Sometimes it is NOT enough to do good things ..you must be strong enough to endure the attack...that will follow; especially if you are trying to place children's lives ahead of USA Insurance Company Profits...crawling inside of 896 collapsed buildings helped to give me the courage that it takes; especially, considering that I have been sick every single day; since 911. FYI: USA Insurance companies oppose my 'triangle of life' survival method; because, 90% of the children would survive; instead of 98% dead. This translates into//actuarial tables indicate, survivor's seeking compensation for trauma (physical or mental) with a net result of diminished shareholder return. The insurance Company Executives told us: ” We are in the business of maximizing shareholder return..NOT..saving lives.” The USA School Boards have been told by their Insurance Carriers that their policies would be terminated or the premium would become extreme..if the children are allowed to survive, following my method. I tried to learn: I am responsible for 'what I do' and for 'what I do NOT do'. I am responsible for 'MY actions'. I am not responsible for what other people do. I discovered: that people never regret 'doing the right thing'. They only regret 'doing the wrong thing'. A life devoid of 'something worth dying for', is a life, 'not worth living'. Do all the living you can; while you can. 650,000 people died, at the major disasters I worked at..I have seen things that you cannot imagine. For all the persecution, hatred, violence and disgusting behavior that I have endured; in fighting against, evil, greedy bastards who exploited the helpless and preyed upon people..I am glad that I always did 'the right thing'. I always stood up; many times, by myself; but never alone.. If you can't be YOURSELF then who can you be?
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3 Responses to Effective Earthquake Prediction

  1. Pingback: Debate: « EDUCATION IN JAPAN COMMUNITY Blog

  2. Christiane Axtman says:

    Incredibly good writing and really will help with becoming familiar with the subject matter better.

  3. Very good work!
    In 1977, I read a short article by a soviet scientist linking radio waves with earthquakes and became interested in the construct. Numerous receivers were constructed and used to tag certain radio anomalies to seismic events. Then while working in Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union, I met a scientist who had mathematically predicted a “new” type of radio wave. It took a decade of experimentation to develop a detector for this new wave. As fate would have it, empirical data showed that this wave is produced naturally as a precursor to any seismic or volcanic event. By combining data from this detector, along with other measurements, including magnetic, kinetic and gravitation, it should be possible to pin point the time, location and strength, of major seismic events up to 21 days in advance of the event.

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